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BetSignal AI – MLB Newsletter 📬
Tab Martin
July 19, 2025
1️⃣ 🏅 TOP BET OF THE DAY 🏅
Giants @ Blue Jays — UNDER 8 Runs
⏰ 3:07 PM ET / 2:07 PM CT • Rogers Centre (roof likely closed)
Metric | AI Projection |
|---|---|
10 K Monte Carlo hit rate | 58 % |
Sim median total | 6.7 runs |
DraftKings line | U 8 (-105) |
Confidence | ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (4.9/5) |
Why We Love It 🔍
Ace duel – Logan Webb (2.94 ERA) vs Eric Lauer (2.78 ERA).
Ground-ball machines keep the ball on the ground.
Giants’ road bats are cold (.224 AVG, bottom-5).
Closed roof knocks down HR carry.
Model edge: fair total 7.3 ➜ 0.7-run cushion.
Play: UNDER 8 Runs • Max price to fire: -120
2️⃣ 🔒 Bonus Pick #1
Royals ML (-123) @ Marlins
⏰ 4:10 PM ET / 3:10 PM CT • loanDepot Park
Metric | AI Projection |
|---|---|
Win probability | 57 % |
Fair line | -133 |
Confidence | ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (4.6/5) |
Why We Love It 🔍
Pitching edge: Michael Wacha (3.74 ERA) vs Cal Quantrill (5.62 ERA).
Bullpen gap: KC 3.42 ERA last 30 days; MIA 4.98.
Bats vs RHP: Royals 112 wRC+; Marlins 89.
Run-suppressed park favors the better staff.
Play: Royals Moneyline • Max price to fire: -140
3️⃣ 🔒 Bonus Pick #2 (Batter Prop)
Aaron Judge (NYY) — Over 1.5 Total Bases vs ATL
⏰ 7:15 PM ET / 6:15 PM CT • Truist Park
Metric | AI Projection |
|---|---|
10 K Monte Carlo hit rate | 57 % |
Expected TB | 2.1 |
DraftKings line | -115 |
Confidence | ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (4.5/5) |
Why We Love It 🔍
Lefty-crusher: Judge is batting .333 with an .850 SLG vs LHP in 2025.
Soft matchup: Braves’ Joey Wentz (6.32 ERA, 1.70 WHIP) is struggling.
Power + heat: Mid-80s temps in ATL add carry to deep drives.
Fair price edge: Model fair line -143; playable to -140.
Play: Judge O 1.5 Total Bases • Max price to fire: -140
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