📬 BetSignalAI — 3-Leg Parlay (Week 1)Thursday, Aug 28, 2025

📊 Model Breakdown (10K-run Monte Carlo)

• Boise ML — Win ~65%
  Why: Early-down efficiency + net special-teams field position; scripted drives grade better.

• Rutgers -13.5 — Cover ~62%
  Why: Trench/depth edge at home; lower-total environment dampens backdoor risk.

• Nebraska -6 — Cover ~58%
  Why: Rush-offense vs front-seven mismatch; neutral site reduces noise.

Combined hit rate (independence): ~23.4%

Break-even at +385: 20.6% → +EV

Expected value (per $100): ≈ +$13 (about +13% ROI)

✅ Play/Price Guidance

• Parlay price floor: playable down to +330 (our fair ≈ +328).

• Leg “play-to” numbers:
  

  • Boise ML

  • Rutgers −13.5

  • Nebraska −6 good to −6.5

Keep stake modest (0.4–0.5u). Singles remain the main bankroll plays.