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🏈🏀 All times CT • Book: DraftKings •

Author

Tab Martin
December 31, 2025

🔥 Top Pick of the Day — 1.25u

Duke −3.5 (−102)
Game: Duke vs Arizona State
Kick: Wed 1:00 PM CT
EV: ~+8–10% (10K MC cover ≈ 58–59%; fair −5.0)
Why we like it: Defense/pressure + finishing-drives edges vs shorthanded ASU; short number avoids late back-door noise.
Play to: −4 (≤ −110); at −4.5 trim to 1.0u.

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Spread • Play: Duke −3.5 (−102) • Units: 1.25u • Time: 1:00 PM CT

✅ Pick 2 — 1.25u

Vanderbilt −5.5 (−108)
Game: Iowa @ Vanderbilt
Kick: Wed 11:00 AM CT
EV: ~+7–9% (MC ≈ 57–58%; fair −7.0)
Why we like it: Health/availability tilt + early-down success edge; Vandy’s scoring profile is steadier in the red zone.
Play to: −6 (≤ −110); −6.5 = 0.75–1.0u.

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Spread • Play: Vanderbilt −5.5 (−108) • Units: 1.25u • Time: 11:00 AM CT

✅ Pick 3 — 1.0–1.25u

Utah −14.5 (−105)
Game: Nebraska vs Utah
Kick: Wed 2:30 PM CT
EV: ~+6–7% (MC ≈ 56–57%; fair −16.0)
Why we like it: Trench/run-game edge; steadier 2H scoring reduces back-door risk.
Play to: Best: −14 (≤ −120) = 1.25u • −14.5 (≤ −115) = 1.0u • −15/−15.5 = 0.75u.

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Spread • Play: Utah −14.5 (−105) • Units: 1.0–1.25u • Time: 2:30 PM CT

✅ Pick 4 — 1.0u

Michigan +7 (−105)
Game: Texas vs Michigan
Kick: Wed 2:00 PM CT
EV: ~+5–6% (MC cover ≈ 56%; fair +5.5)
Why we like it: Personnel context narrows Texas’ margin; pace/explosives mix lands under a full TD often.
Play to: +7 (≤ −115); +6.5 = 0.75u.

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Spread • Play: Michigan +7 (−105) • Units: 1.0u • Time: 2:00 PM CT

☑️ Small Lean (If you just have to) — 0.5u cap

Ohio State −9.5 (−110)
Game: Miami (FL) vs Ohio State
Kick: Wed 6:30 PM CT
Note: Keeping this a small lean only pre-kick. If you’re watching live, look for OSU pressure/finishing-drives edge before adding.
Play to: −9.5 (≤ −110); −10 = 0.25–0.5u only.

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Spread • Play: Ohio State −9.5 (−110) • Units: 0.5u (lean) • Time: 6:30 PM CT

Quick Ticket

  • Duke −3.5 (−102) — 1.25u

  • Vanderbilt −5.5 (−108) — 1.25u

  • Utah −14.5 (−105) — 1.0–1.25u

  • Michigan +7 (−105) — 1.0u

  • Ohio State −9.5 (−110) — 0.5u (small lean)

If a number moves past our play-to rules, pass—we don’t chase.

🏀🏀👇👇🏀🏀

🔥 Top Pick of the Day

  1. MIN Timberwolves -4.5 (−108) — 1.5u

  2. Game: MIN Timberwolves @ ATL Hawks

  3. Tip: 2:00 PM CT

  4. EV: +10% (10K MC cover ≈ 61%)

  5. Why we like it: Minnesota’s elite defense and top-tier net rating match up perfectly against Atlanta’s bottom-tier defense, and our number makes this closer to Wolves -6 to -6.5, especially with Hawks’ key pieces banged up.

  6. Play to: MIN -5.5 (≤ −115)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

  • Market: Spread

  • Play: MIN Timberwolves -4.5 (−108)

  • Units: 1.5u

  • Time: 2:00 PM CT

✅ Pick 2

  1. MIL Bucks -10.5 (−112) — 1.25u

  2. Game: WAS Wizards @ MIL Bucks

  3. Tip: 7:00 PM CT

  4. EV: +9% (10K MC cover ≈ 60%)

  5. Why we like it: Massive offensive and defensive gap with Milwaukee at home; our model lands closer to Bucks -12 and expects their half-court attack to carve up Washington’s bottom-tier defense over four quarters.

  6. Play to: MIL -11.5 (≤ −115)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

  • Market: Spread

  • Play: MIL Bucks -10.5 (−112)

  • Units: 1.25u

  • Time: 7:00 PM CT

✅ Pick 3

  1. NY Knicks +1.5 (−112) — 1.0u

  2. Game: NY Knicks @ SA Spurs

  3. Tip: 6:00 PM CT

  4. EV: +7–8% (10K MC cover ≈ 58%)

  5. Why we like it: Spurs are without key perimeter scoring while the Knicks still bring a tougher half-court offense and more reliable defense; our number actually makes New York a small favorite, so we’ll gladly take the points.

  6. Play to: NYK PK (≤ −115)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

  • Market: Spread

  • Play: NY Knicks +1.5 (−112)

  • Units: 1.0u

  • Time: 6:00 PM CT

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