🔒 Top Play — 1.25 Units

Oregon at Iowa — UNDER 42.5 (−112)
Kick: 2:30 CT
Why we love it: slow side vs slower side. Iowa drags tempo down, Oregon won’t get its full-speed script, and both defenses can force long fields. Our sims cluster in the 37–41 range, so 41.5 is worth protecting.
Play to:

• Under 41.5 (≤ −115) → 1.25u

• Under 41.0 → 1.0u

• Under 40.5 → 0.75u

✅ Play 2 — 1.0 Unit

Texas A&M −6.5 (−115) at Missouri
Kick: 2:30 PM CT
Why we love it: Aggies grade higher in early-down success and defensive floor, and our number is closer to A&M −8. Laying 7 is fine; 7.5 we start trimming.
Play to:

• −7 (≤ −115) → 1.0u

• −7.5 → 0.75u only

✅ Play 3 — 1.0 Unit

BYU +11.5 (−110) at Texas Tech
Kick: 6:00 PM CT
Why we love it: We never had this as an 11+ gap on power; we were closer to Tech −7.5/−8. Getting +11.5 adds real cushion for a road dog in a top-25 matchup and keeps back-door/late-score equity live.
Play to:

• +11.5 (≤ −115) → 1.0u

• +11 → 1.0u

• +10.5 → 0.75u

✅ Play 4 — 1.0 Unit

Georgia −9.5 (−110) at Mississippi State
Kick: 6:30 PM CT
Why we love it: Georgia owns both lines and finishes drives better. Our number is about UGA −10.5, so we can play 9.5 and even 10.
Play to:

• −10 (≤ −110) → 1.0u

• −10.5 → 0.75u

Quick Ticket

• Oregon–Iowa Under 41.5 — 1.25u

• Texas A&M −7 — 1.0u

• BYU +11.5 — 1.0u

• Georgia −9.5 — 1.0u

Discipline: singles are the grind; parlays tracked separately. If your book is outside our play-to number/price, skip it — we don’t chase.

🏀🏀🏀🏀🏀🏀

🔥 Top Pick of the Day

DEN Nuggets −11.5 (−110) — 1.0u
Game: IND Pacers @ Denver Nuggets
Tip: 8:00 PM CT
Why we love it: Pacers are thinned out, Denver is not. Our number sits closer to DEN −13, and Denver at home punishes short benches in the 3rd/4th.
Model notes (since you didn’t see the EVs): win % mid/high-50s, positive EV at −110.
Play to: −12 (≤ −115)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

• Market: Spread

• Play: Nuggets −11.5 (−110)

• Units: 1.0u

• Time: 7:00 PM CT

✅ Pick 2

SA Spurs −11.5 (−108) — 1.0u
Game: NO Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs
Tip: 7:00 PM CT
Why we love it: Pelicans injury stack is heavier — multiple key guys on or out — and our injury-adjusted line bumps a bit higher than the book’s 11.5. Script favors a Spurs pull-away.
Model notes: win % mid-50s, small-to-solid positive EV at −108.
Play to: −12 (≤ −115)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

• Market: Spread

• Play: Spurs −11.5 (−108)

• Units: 1.0u

• Time: 7:00 PM CT

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