🔒 Top Play — 1.25 Units

West Virginia +19.5 (−112) at BYU — Kick 9:00 PM CT
Model (10K sims): cover ~58% • fair line +17.0–17.5 → EV ~+9–10%
Why we love it: Big dog with a low total (46.5) = extra cover equity; WVU’s run game + pace can shorten possessions, plus back-door paths if BYU rotates late.
Play to: +19 (≤ −115); at +20 (≤ −120) you can keep 1.25u.

📉 Total — 1.0 Unit

New Mexico–San José State UNDER 58.5 (−112) — Kick 9:00 PM CT
Model: Under ~56–57% • fair total ~56.0 → EV ~+6–7%
Why: Both teams project middling finishing-drives; SJSU’s tempo has cooled and UNM’s explosives are limited.
Play to: Under 58 (≤ −115); at 57.5 trim to 0.75u.

📈 Side — 1.0 Unit

Colorado State +6.5 (−112) at San Diego State — Kick 9:30 PM CT
Model: cover ~56% • fair line +5.0 → EV ~+5–6%
Why: Low total (40.5) boosts the value of the points; CSU’s pass game vs. SDSU’s methodical pace keeps this inside one score often.
Play to: +6 (≤ −110/−115); if you only see +6.5 (≥ −120), trim to 0.75u.

Quick Ticket

• WVU +19.5 — 1.25u (to +19 ≤ −115; +20 ≤ −120 OK)

• UNM–SJSU Under 58.5 — 1.0u (to 58 ≤ −115; 57.5 = 0.75u)

• Colorado State +6.5 — 1.0u (to +6 ≤ −115)

Discipline: Singles are the grind. Parlays tracked separately. If your book is outside our play-to number/price, skip it—we don’t chase.

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