🔥 BetSignalAI — MLB Game 5

Odds moved to our favor overnight

Author

Tab Martin
October 10, 2025

🧨 Top Pick of the Day — 1.5u

George Kirby 6+ Strikeouts (−138) — Fri • 7:08 PM CT
Why: K distribution sits 6→8; 6+ is the highest-probability rung with playoff leash.
Numbers: BE 57.98% • BSAI hit ≈ 66% → EV ≈ +13.8%
Play to: −165
🧾 Lock It In (DK): Pitcher Ks (Alt) • Kirby 6+ (−138) • 1.5u

✅ Pick 2 — 1.0u

George Kirby 7+ Strikeouts (+132) — Fri • 7:08 PM CT
Why: Sweet-spot rung—solid hit rate with plus money.
Numbers: BE 43.10% • BSAI hit ≈ 54.0% → EV ≈ +25.3%
Play to: +110
🧾 Lock It In (DK): Pitcher Ks (Alt) • Kirby 7+ (+132) • 1.0u

✅ Pick 3 — 0.75u

Seattle Mariners — Moneyline +118 (play only if +105 or better) — Fri • 7:08 PM CT
Why: Kirby’s run prevention + home leverage pen keep SEA live in a tight, low-total script.
Numbers (at +118): BE 45.87% • BSAI win ≈ 48–49% → EV ≈ +4–6%
Play to: +105 (pass if worse)
🧾 Lock It In (DK): Moneyline • SEA +118 • 0.75u

✳️ Pick 4 — 0.5u (Sprinkle)

George Kirby 8+ Strikeouts (+257) — Fri • 7:08 PM CT
Why: Ceiling rung aligned with our 7–8K center; small stake for upside.
Numbers: BE 28.01% • BSAI hit ≈ 38.5% → EV ≈ +37.4%
Play to: +160
🧾 Lock It In (DK): Pitcher Ks (Alt) • Kirby 8+ (+257) • 0.5u

Notes

  • These are intentionally correlated to a SEA-lean, low-scoring script—manage exposure with units above.

  • If a line moves past the Play-to, pass to protect EV.

  • Starters & bullpens are fully priced into our 10K-run Monte Carlo.

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