📬 BetSignalAI — MLB Playoffs Card Oct 15

🧨 Top Pick — 1.5u

George Kirby (Seattle Mariners) 5+ Strikeouts (−122)
Why: K distribution centers 5–6 vs TOR’s contact profile; playoff leash nudges volume.
Numbers: BE 54.95% • Model hit ≈61% → Edge +6.0 pts • EV ≈ +9–11%
Play to: −140
DK Ticket: Pitcher Ks (Alt) • Kirby 5+ (−122) • 1.5u
Start: 7:08 PM CT

✅ Pick 2 — 1.0u

Seattle Mariners — Moneyline (−137)
Why: Home/pen leverage + Kirby’s run-prevention → higher win rate in a low-total script.
Numbers: BE 57.80% • Model ≈59.5% → EV ≈ +3%
Play to: −145
DK Ticket: Moneyline • SEA −137 • 1.0u
Start: 7:08 PM CT

✅ Pick 3 — 0.75u

George Kirby (Seattle Mariners) 6+ Strikeouts (+174)
Why: Plus-money rung aligned with our 5–6–7K band; strong ROI with manageable volatility.
Numbers: BE 36.50% • Model ≈45% → Edge +8.5 pts • EV ≈ +18–22%
Play to: +150
DK Ticket: Pitcher Ks (Alt) • Kirby 6+ (+174) • 0.75u
Start: 7:08 PM CT

✅ Pick 4 — 0.75u (EV chase)

Seattle Mariners −1.5 (+162)
Why: Lower hit rate than ML in a 7-run environment, but price creates value; if SEA builds margin, Kirby → leverage pen opens multiple 2+ run cover paths.
Numbers: BE 38.17% • BSAI cover ≈40.5–41.5% → Edge +2.3–3.3 pts • EV ≈ +6–8%
Play to: +145
DK Ticket: Run Line • SEA −1.5 (+162) • 0.75u
Start: 7:08 PM CT

Notes

• Correlated to a SEA-lean, low-scoring script—manage exposure per units above.

• If any line moves past Play-to, pass to protect EV.

• Starters & bullpens are priced into our 10K-run Monte Carlo.

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