• BetSignalAI
  • Posts
  • πŸ”₯ BetSignalAI β€” MLB Playoffs (Tue, 7:08 PM CT)

πŸ”₯ BetSignalAI β€” MLB Playoffs (Tue, 7:08 PM CT)

Game: Dodgers (Yamamoto) @ Brewers (Peralta) β€” DraftKings lines only.

🧨 Top Pick of the Day β€” 1.5u

Dodgers Moneyline (βˆ’126)
Why we love it

  • In a 7–7.5 total environment we prefer the higher hit-rate side.

  • Yamamoto’s K:BB efficiency + LAD leverage pen give the edge in a likely one-run script.
    Numbers: BE 55.75% β€’ BSAI win β‰ˆ 58.3% β†’ Edge +2.55 pts β€’ EV β‰ˆ +4.5%
    Play to: βˆ’135
    🧾 Lock It In (DK): Moneyline β€’ LAD βˆ’126 β€’ 1.5u

βœ… Pick 2 β€” 1.0u

Under 7.5 (βˆ’124)
Why we love it

  • Two strikeout aces + October hooks β†’ limited crooked innings; the half-run bump from 7 to 7.5 materially raises our hit rate.
    Numbers: BE 55.36% β€’ BSAI hit β‰ˆ 59–60% β†’ EV β‰ˆ +5–7%
    Play to: βˆ’140
    🧾 Lock It In (DK): Total β€’ U 7.5 (βˆ’124) β€’ 1.0u

βœ… Pick 3 β€” 0.75u (EV chase)

Dodgers βˆ’1.5 (+144)
Why we love it

  • If LAD gets margin, Yamamoto β†’ leverage pen provides multiple 2+ run cover paths. Lower hit rate than ML, but price creates value.
    Numbers: BE 40.98% β€’ BSAI cover β‰ˆ 43.8% β†’ Edge +2.82 pts β€’ EV β‰ˆ +6.9%
    Play to: +130
    🧾 Lock It In (DK): Run Line β€’ LAD βˆ’1.5 (+144) β€’ 0.75u

Notes

  • If a line moves past the Play-to number, pass to protect EV.

  • Model inputs: starters, bullpen leverage availability, park/weather, playoff usage (10K-run Monte Carlo).

  • Single-game stack is intentional: ML (highest win rate), Under (game script), RL (plus-money value).

πŸš€ Join the Movement

Like, share, and tag your crewβ€”let’s stack tickets.