🔥 Top Pick — 1.5u (Strong 4/5)
Travis Kelce 4+ receptions (−168 DK)
Why we love it: High-floor role; our sims hit ~77–80% vs 62.7% breakeven.
Play to: −180.

✅ Pick 2 — 1.0u (Edge 3/5)
Travis Kelce 5+ receptions (+126 DK)
Why we love it: Plus-money with ~56–60% hit; best EV of the Kelce ladders.
Play to: +110.

✅ Pick 3 — 1.0u (Edge 3/5)
Kansas City Chiefs −3.5 (−108 DK)
Why we love it: Median margin ≈ KC by 5; quick-game (Kelce/Brown) vs JAX zones, Jags’ front banged up.
Play to: −3.5 (≤ −115). If −3 (≤ −120) appears, upgrade.

🧠 Risk note (correlation): Picks 2 & 3 correlate with Pick 1. If you want tighter risk, cap combined Kelce exposure at 2.0u (e.g., 1.25u on 4+, 0.75u on 5+).

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🔥 Top Pick — 1.5u

Dodgers @ Phillies — First 5 Under 4.5 (−166) — Mon 5:08 PM CT
Why we love it: Snell vs Luzardo = two high-K lefties, playoff hooks, and October run suppression → early scoring stays muted.

• Market BE: 62.41%

• BSAI hit%: ≈66%

• Edge: +3.6 pts

• EV: +5.8% ROI
  Play to: −185
  🧾 Lock It In (DK): Total • F5 Under 4.5 (−166) • 1.5u

✅ Pick 2 — 1.0u

Cubs Moneyline (+101) @ Brewers — Mon 8:08 PM CT
Why we love it: Imanaga vs Ashby; Cubs rate slightly higher on run prevention + late-inning usage, and we’re getting plus money.

• Market BE: 49.75%

• BSAI win%: ≈52.2%

• Edge: +2.45 pts

• EV: +4.9% ROI
  Play to: −105
  🧾 Lock It In (DK): Moneyline • CHC +101 • 1.0u

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