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Author

Tab Martin
December 17, 2025

🔥 Top Pick of the Day

CLE Cavaliers -5.5 (−110) — 1.5u

  • Game: CLE Cavaliers @ CHI Bulls

  • Tip: 7:00 PM CT

  • EV: ≈ +6%

  • Why we like it: Cleveland owns clear edges in net rating, defense, and half-court efficiency. Chicago’s defense has been leaky and they struggle to finish possessions on the glass, which plays right into the Cavs’ strengths. Our number makes this closer to Cavs -7, so laying -5.5 gives us a strong cushion in a matchup where Cleveland can separate over four quarters.

  • Play to: Cavaliers -6.5 (≤ −115)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

  • Market: Spread

  • Play: CLE Cavaliers -5.5 (−110)

  • Units: 1.5u

  • Time: 7:00 PM CT

⭐ Pick 2

MIN Timberwolves -7.5 (−110) — 1.25u

  • Game: MEM Grizzlies @ MIN Timberwolves

  • Tip: 7:00 PM CT

  • EV: ≈ +5%

  • Why we like it: Minnesota’s elite defense and size are a brutal matchup for a Memphis offense that can bog down in the half court. Our simulations put this closer to Wolves -9, with Minnesota controlling the paint, boards, and free-throw line. At home, laying -7.5 still leaves value.

  • Play to: Timberwolves -8.5 (≤ −115)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

  • Market: Spread

  • Play: MIN Timberwolves -7.5 (−110)

  • Units: 1.25u

  • Time: 7:00 PM CT

🏈🏈👇🏈🏈 CFB

🔥 Top Pick of the Day

Louisiana −3 (−110) — 1.25u
Game: Louisiana vs Delaware
Kick: 7:30 PM CT
EV: ≈ +6–8% (10K MC cover ≈ 57–58%; fair −4.5)
Why we like it: Better schedule-adjusted early-down efficiency and finishing drives; trench + pass-rush grades point to sustained edges and more explosive-play upside.
Play to: −3 (≤ −120) or −3.5 (−105/−110 = 1.0u)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Spread
• Play: Louisiana −3 (−110)
• Units: 1.25u
• Time: 7:30 PM CT

Pick 2

Old Dominion @ South Florida — Over 52.5 (−108) — 1.0u
Kick: 4:00 PM CT
EV: ≈ +5–6% (10K MC hit ≈ 56%; fair total 54.5–55)
Why we like it: Both offenses project above-average pace with chunk-play profiles; defenses allow explosives and below-avg red-zone TD prevention. Multiple scripts cluster mid-50s.
Play to: Over 53 (≤ −110); at 53.5, trim to 0.75u

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Total
• Play: Over 52.5 (−108) — ODU @ USF
• Units: 1.0u
• Time: 4:00 PM CT

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