🔥 BetSignalAI —NFL & MLB Playoffs

🔥 Top Pick —

Under 44.5 (−115 DK)

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1.5u (Strong 4/5)

• 10k MC hit rate (p̂): 56.5%

• ROI: +5.6%

• Why: Drive/pace sims lean conservative with red-zone finish rates below market and limited explosive rate. Divisional familiarity further suppresses scoring.

• Play to: U44.5 (≤ −120); at 44.0, trim to 1.0u.

✅ Pick 2 —

Steelers −5.5 (−110 DK)

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1.0u (Edge 3/5)

• 10k MC hit rate (p̂): 55.2%

• ROI: +5.4%

• Why: Early-down success and short-field edge push the median margin above six. Laying under 6 keeps us clear of a dead number.

• Play to: −5.5 (≤ −115); if it drops to −5 or −4.5 (≤ −120), you can bump to 1.5u

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🧨 Pick 1 — 1.5u

Dodgers −1.5 (+104) vs Brewers — 5:08 PM CT

Why we love it

• In a 7.5 total spot we convert the fave to plus-money RL.

• Glasnow + LAD leverage pen give multiple 2+ run separation paths.
  Numbers: BE 49.0% • Model cover ≈ 51–52% → EV ≈ +5–6%
  Play to: EVEN (+100)

✅ Pick 2 — 1.0u

Mariners Moneyline (−138) vs Blue Jays — 7:08 PM CT

Why

• Luis Castillo at home with SEA’s leverage pen in a 7.5 total game → higher win rate.
  Numbers: BE 58.0% • Model win ≈ 59.5% → EV ≈ +2–3%
  Play to: −145
  Optional EV-chase (smaller stake): SEA −1.5 (+152).

Notes

• If a line moves past the Play-to number, pass to protect EV.

• Single-game stack avoided; plays target different games.

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