📬 BetSignalAI NFL & MLB— September 21st

📬 BetSignalAI — NFL Sunday Picks (Sept 21, 2025 • CT)
DraftKings lines only • One pick per matchup • Includes units & “Lock It In” tickets

🔥 Top Pick of the Day — 1.5u (Strong 4/5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers −6.5 (−110 DK) vs New York Jets — 12:00 PM CT
Why We Love It: Our sims show the best win/cover combo on the slate at standard juice. Defensive pressure + home field tilt the script.
Lock It In (DK Ticket):

• Bet Type: Spread

• Pick: Buccaneers −6.5

• Odds: −110

• Units: 1.5u

• Play to: −6.5 (≤ −120). At −7, trim to 1.0u.

✅ Pick 2 — 1.5u (Strong 4/5)
Philadelphia Eagles −3.5 (−110 DK) vs Los Angeles Rams — 12:00 PM CT
Why We Love It: Early-down efficiency + trench edge at home. Our fair sits stronger than a field goal.
Lock It In (DK Ticket):

• Bet Type: Spread

• Pick: Eagles −3.5

• Odds: −110

• Units: 1.5u

• Play to: −3.5 (≤ −115).

✅ Pick 3 — 1.0u (Edge 3/5)
Green Bay Packers −9.5 (−110 DK) @ Cleveland Browns — 12:00 PM CT
Why We Love It: Median margin projects near two scores; standard juice keeps EV clean.
Lock It In (DK Ticket):

• Bet Type: Spread

• Pick: Packers −9.5

• Odds: −110

• Units: 1.0u

• Play to: −9.5 (≤ −115). If −8.5 pops, that’s an upgrade.

 Bonus Ladder — Travis Etienne Rushing (2.0u total) — Texans @ Jaguars, 12:00 PM CT
All rungs DraftKings

• 0.80u — 60+ yards (+104)

• 0.45u — 70+ yards (+164)

• 0.35u — 80+ yards (+247)

• 0.25u — 90+ yards (+376)

• 0.15u — 100+ yards (+564)
  Play-to guards: 60+ ≥ +100 • 70+ ≥ +150 • 80+ ≥ +225 • 90+ ≥ +325 • 100+ ≥ +475

⚾MLB⚾

🔥 Top Pick of the Day — 1.5u

Milwaukee Brewers — Moneyline (DraftKings)
Opponent: St. Louis Cardinals • Start: 1:15 PM CT
Probables: Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL).

Why we love it

• SP edge: Peralta over Liberatore; MIL pen grades better late.

• Context: Brewers are surging (magic number at 1 after Saturday’s win). We still rate this a steady ML spot.

🧾 DK Ticket

• Bet Type: Moneyline

• Units: 1.5u

• Play to: −150 (if Contreras is confirmed out, keep it to −140)

✅ Pick 2 — 1.0u

Nationals @ Mets — Over 8.5 −115 (DraftKings)
Start: 12:40 PM CT

Why We Like It

• Multiple scoring paths: Both offenses project traffic; late-inning bullpen risk lifts run expectancy.

• Number preference: 8.5 gives full-win upside on 9+ (we prefer this to an 8.0 at heavy juice).

• Model edge: Total clears our median sim more than the −115 breakeven.

🧾 Lock It In (DK Ticket)

• Bet Type: Game Total Over 8.5

• Odds: −115 (DraftKings)

• Units: 1.0u

• Play to: −120

✅ Prop Play — 1.0u

Pete Alonso (Mets) — HRR 3+ (Hits + Runs + RBIs) — plus money only (DraftKings)
Opponent: Washington Nationals • Start: 12:40 PM CT
Probables: Sean Manaea (NYM) vs Jake Irvin (WSH).

Why we like it

• Multiple paths to 3 HRR (1H+1R+1RBI, 2H+1R, or a HR = 4 HRR).

• Matchup fit: Alonso’s RBI/run equity is strong vs Irvin with NYM favored at home.

🧾 DK Ticket

• Bet Type: HRR 3+

• Units: 1.0u

• Price rule: Take at +100 or better (pass if it slips below even).

• Contingency: If Alonso doesn’t start, pivot to Francisco Lindor — HRR 3+ +105 or better.

📊 Today’s Card (CT)

• Brewers ML — 1.5u — 1:15 PM @ Cardinals.

• Nationals/Mets over 8.5 — 12:40 pm

• Pete Alonso HRR 3+ — 1.0u — 12:40 PM vs Nationals.

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CT times verified from team/league pages; stick to the Play to lines if DraftKings moves.