🔥 BetSignalAI —NFL & World Series G3

🔥 Pick 1 — 1.0u (Edge 3/5)
Travis Kelce 50+ Receiving Yards (+126 DK)
Why we love it: Route share + middle-of-field targets create multiple paths to 50; pairs well with short-area usage and YAC.
Play to: +115.

✅ Pick 2 — 1.0u (Edge 3/5)
Travis Kelce 4+ Receptions (−142 DK)
Why we love it: Staple usage regardless of script; our sim clears 4 catches the majority of the time.
Play to: −150.

✅ Pick 3 — 0.75u
Kansas City Chiefs −10.5 (−115 DK)
Why we love it: With Mariota starting, our median margin lands in double digits; laying 10.5 is viable as a smaller stake.
Play to: −10.5 (≤ −115). If −9.5 ≤ −125 appears, that’s preferred.

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🧨 Top Pick of the Day — 1.25u 7:00 CT

Tyler Glasnow 7+ Ks (+116)

• Why: Our K distribution centers 6–7 with postseason leash; plus-money rung carries the best ROI.

• Numbers: BE 46.3% • BSAI hit ≈ 51–53% → Edge +4.7–6.7 pts → EV ≈ +11–15%

• Play to: +100

• Ticket: Pitcher Props → Alt Strikeouts → Glasnow 7+ (+116)

✅ Pick 2 — 1.0u

Dodgers −1.5 (−101)

• Why: With total 8 and LAD a sizable fave, converting to RL captures value if LA gets late separation (Glasnow → leverage pen).

• Numbers: BE 50.2% • Model cover ≈ 51.5–52.5% → EV ≈ +2.5–3.8%

• Play to: −110

• Ticket: Run Line → LAD −1.5 (−101)

✅ Pick 3 — 1.0–1.25u (anchor)

Tyler Glasnow 6+ Ks (−167)

• Why: Highest hit-rate leg; pairs with 7+ as a value ladder.

• Numbers: BE 62.6% • BSAI hit ≈ 64–66% → EV ≈ +2–5.5%

• Play to: −180 (okay to −185 at 1.0u)

• Ticket: Pitcher Props → Alt Strikeouts → Glasnow 6+ (−167)

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