📬 BetSignalAI — September 16th

🔥 Top Pick of the Day — 1.0u

Milwaukee Brewers −1.5 (Run Line) −126 (DraftKings)
Opponent: Los Angeles Angels • Start: 6:40 PM CT

Why We Love It

• Stability + spot: Peralta vs Dana is an A-tier mismatch at home; Milwaukee’s pen/defense close games well.

• Model: Cover ≈ 57–59% → fair ~−135; still +EV at −126 (DK).

• Unit discipline: Price drift shaved the edge; we keep this 1.0u (would be 1.5u again at −120 to −125).

🧾 Lock It In (DK Ticket)

• Bet Type: Run Line −1.5

• Odds: −126 (DraftKings)

• Units: 1.0u

• Play to: −128 (≥ −130 → 0.75u; ≥ −135 → pass)

✅ Pick #2 — 1.0u

Seattle Mariners −1.5 (Run Line) +105 (DraftKings)
Opponent: Kansas City Royals • Start: 6:40 PM CT

Why We Love It

• SP edge: Logan Gilbert’s strike-throwing vs a contact-leaning lineup.

• Model: cover ≈ 54–55% → fair ~−110; +105 (DK) is strong +EV.

• Preference: RL > inflated ML here.

🧾 Lock It In (DK Ticket)

• Bet Type: Run Line −1.5

• Odds: +105 (DraftKings)

• Units: 1.0u

• Play to: −110

✅ Pick #3 — 1.0u (Batter Prop — Padres)

Fernando Tatis Jr. — 2+ Total Bases +104 (DraftKings)
Opponent: New York Mets • Start: 6:10 PM CT

Why We Love It

• Paths to clear: multiple XBH routes or 2 knocks; elite hard-hit profile.

• Model: Clear ≈ 54–55% → fair ~−115; +104 (DK) is strong +EV.

🧾 Lock It In (DK Ticket)

• Bet Type: Batter Prop (2+ TB)

• Odds: +104 (DraftKings)

• Units: 1.0u

• Play to: −105

• Contingency: If Tatis doesn’t start or price worse than −105, pivot to Manny Machado — 2+ TB +100 or better (DraftKings).

📊 Today’s Card (CT)

• Brewers −1.5 −126 (DK) — 1.0u — 6:40 PM vs Angels

• Mariners −1.5 +105 (DK) — 1.0u — 6:40 PM @ Royals

• Tatis Jr. 2+ TB +104 (DK) — 1.0u — 6:10 PM @ Mets

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If DraftKings moves, use the Play to lines above as guardrails.