📬 BetSignalAI — Saturday’s College Football (Sept 20, 2025)
Extended card (by request). Units on every pick. 10K Monte Carlo + ensemble.
Discipline: If a number moves past our play-to, we pass—no chasing.

🔒 Top Play — 1.25 Units

Miami −7.5 (−110 to −115) vs Florida
Model (10K sims): cover ~56–57% • fair −8.8 • EV ~+6–8%
Why we love it: Defensive success-rate + finishing-drives edge, plus a clean QB/WR mismatch at home.
Play to: −7.5 (≤ −115) • −7 (≤ −130). If it hits −8, trim to 0.75u.

📈 1.0 Unit

Oklahoma −6.5 (−110) vs Auburn
Model: cover ~56% • fair −7.9 • EV ~+6–7%
Why: Front-seven disruption + field-position edge; our median is Sooners by a score.
Play to: −6.5 (≤ −115) • −7 (−105/−110).

📈 1.0 Unit

Utah −3.5 (−110) vs Texas Tech
Model: cover ~57% • fair −5.0 • EV ~+8–9%
Why: Pressure rate vs. TTU pass-pro and a script that favors Utah controlling downs.
Play to: −3.5 (≤ −120) • −4 (−105/−110).

📈 1.0 Unit

Michigan −1.5 (−110) at Nebraska
Model: cover ~56% • fair −2.8 • EV ~+6–7%
Why: Slight early-down efficiency + red-zone conversion gap; run game stabilizes on the road.
Play to: −1.5 (≤ −120) or ML (≤ −125) if spread disappears.

📈 Total — 1.0 Unit

Tulane–Ole Miss OVER 61.5 (−110)
Model: Over ~57% • fair total ~63.0 • EV ~+8–9%
Why: Tempo + explosives on both sides create multiple routes into the low-to-mid 60s.
Play to: Over 62.5 (≤ −115).

📈 Dog — 1.0 Unit

Purdue +24.5 (−108) at Notre Dame
Model: cover ~55–56% • fair ND −23.0 to −23.5 • EV ~+5–7%
Why: Big-number back-door equity + late substitution risk; we don’t need perfection—just avoid a second avalanche.
Play to: +24 (≤ −115); below +24 trim to 0.75u. If +25/25.5 (≤ −115) appears, keep 1.0u (ok to 1.25u if you want the extra cushion).

Quick Ticket

• Miami −7.5 — 1.25u (to −7.5 ≤ −115 / −7 ≤ −130)

• Oklahoma −6.5 — 1.0u (to −6.5 ≤ −115 / −7 −105~−110)

• Utah −3.5 — 1.0u (to −3.5 ≤ −120 / −4 −105~−110)

• Michigan −1.5 — 1.0u (to −1.5 ≤ −120 / ML ≤ −125)

• Tulane–Ole Miss Over 61.5 — 1.0u (to 62.5 ≤ −115)

• Purdue +24.5 — 1.0u (to +24 ≤ −115; trim below +24)

Unit Discipline

Stick to the listed units and play-to numbers. If your book is outside our play-to, skip it—we don’t chase. Parlays are tracked separately and are not default.

📬 BetSignalAI — September 20th, 2025 (MLB)

All start times in Central Time. DraftKings-only prices. One pick per matchup. Units shown.

🔥 Top Pick of the Day — 1.5u

Arizona Diamondbacks — Moneyline (DraftKings)
Opponent: Philadelphia Phillies
Start: 7:10 PM CT
Probables: Zac Gallen (ARI) vs Aaron Nola (PHI).

Why we love it

• SP edge + venue: Gallen at Chase vs a struggling 2025 version of Nola.

• Model: Win ≈ 58–60% → fair ~−147 to −152; we prefer ML (lower variance).

• Timing check: MLB lists 8:10 PM ET → 7:10 PM CT.

🧾 DK Ticket

• Bet Type: Moneyline

• Units: 1.5u

• Play to: −140 (smaller edge past that)

✅ Prop Play — 1.0u

Pete Alonso (Mets) — HRR 3+ (Hits + Runs + RBIs) — plus money only (DraftKings)
Opponent: Washington Nationals
Start: 3:10 PM CT
Probables / window: Cade Cavalli (WSH) vs Nolan McLean (NYM); game time 4:10 PM ET → 3:10 PM CT.

Why we like it

• Multiple paths to 3 HRR (e.g., 1H+1R+1RBI, 2H+1R, or a HR = 4 HRR).

• Context: Mets offense is hot entering today’s game; RBI/run equity for Alonso is elevated.

🧾 DK Ticket

• Bet Type: HRR 3+

• Units: 1.0u

• Price rule: Take only at +100 or better (pass if it slips below even).

• If Alonso sits: pivot to Francisco Lindor — HRR 3+ +105 or better.

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We’ve kept this card tight, ML + one prop, with verified probables and CT times. If DraftKings numbers move, use the Play to lines above as guardrails.