📬 BetSignalAI — Saturday’s College Football (Sept 20, 2025)
Extended card (by request). Units on every pick. 10K Monte Carlo + ensemble.
Discipline: If a number moves past our play-to, we pass—no chasing.

🔒 Top Play — 1.25 Units

Miami −7.5 (−110 to −115) vs Florida
Model (10K sims): cover ~56–57% • fair −8.8 • EV ~+6–8%
Why we love it: Defensive success-rate + finishing-drives edge, plus a clean QB/WR mismatch at home.
Play to: −7.5 (≤ −115) • −7 (≤ −130). If it hits −8, trim to 0.75u.

📈 1.0 Unit

Oklahoma −6.5 (−110) vs Auburn
Model: cover ~56% • fair −7.9 • EV ~+6–7%
Why: Front-seven disruption + field-position edge; our median is Sooners by a score.
Play to: −6.5 (≤ −115) • −7 (−105/−110).

📈 1.0 Unit

Utah −3.5 (−110) vs Texas Tech
Model: cover ~57% • fair −5.0 • EV ~+8–9%
Why: Pressure rate vs. TTU pass-pro and a script that favors Utah controlling downs.
Play to: −3.5 (≤ −120) • −4 (−105/−110).

✅ MLB Prop Play — 1.0u

Pete Alonso (Mets) — HRR 3+ (Hits + Runs + RBIs) — plus money only (DraftKings)
Opponent: Washington Nationals
Start: 3:10 PM CT
Probables / window: Cade Cavalli (WSH) vs Nolan McLean (NYM); game time 4:10 PM ET → 3:10 PM CT.

Why we like it

• Multiple paths to 3 HRR (e.g., 1H+1R+1RBI, 2H+1R, or a HR = 4 HRR).

• Context: Mets offense is hot entering today’s game; RBI/run equity for Alonso is elevated.

🧾 DK Ticket

• Bet Type: HRR 3+

• Units: 1.0u

• Price rule: Take only at +100 or better (pass if it slips below even).

• If Alonso sits: pivot to Francisco Lindor — HRR 3+ +105 or better.

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We’ve kept this card tight, ML + one prop, with verified probables and CT times. If DraftKings numbers move, use the Play to lines above as guardrails.