📬 BetSignalAI — Saturday College Football
Card cap: max 3 plays. If a number moves past our play-to, we pass.
(Units on every pick • 10K Monte Carlo + ensemble.)

🔒 Top Play — 1.25 Units

Georgia −2.5 (−115) vs Alabama 6:30 CT
Model (10K sims): cover ~57% • fair UGA −3.8 • EV ~+6–7%
Why we love it: trench + finishing-drives edge; Georgia’s havoc prevention keeps the script on schedule.
Play to: −2.5 (≤ −120) or −3 (−105/−110, trim to 1.0u)

📈 1.0 Unit

USC–Illinois OVER 61.5 (−108) 11:00 CT
Model: Over ~57% • fair total ~63.5–64.0 • EV ~+9–10%
Why: tempo + passing efficiency on both sides; several paths into the low-mid 60s.
Play to: Over 62.5 (≤ −115)

📈 1.0 Unit

Oregon +3.5 (−110) at Penn State 6:30 CT
Model: cover ~56% • fair PSU −2.0 • EV ~+6–7%
Why: Ducks grade better in explosive-pass prevention and early-down success; +3.5 captures the FG game.
Play to: +3.5 (≤ −120); if it slips to +3, consider a small ML +142 topper instead.

Quick Ticket

• Georgia −2.5 — 1.25u (to −3 @ −105/−110 = 1.0u)

• USC–Illinois Over 61.5 — 1.0u (to 62.5 ≤ −115)

• Oregon +3.5 — 1.0u (to +3.5 ≤ −120; ML if +3)

Discipline: If your book is outside our play-to number/price, skip it—we don’t chase.

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🔥 Top Pick of the Day — 1.5u

Philadelphia Phillies −1.5 (Run Line) — target −105 to −110 (DK)
Opponent: Minnesota Twins • Start: 5:05 PM CT
Why we like it: SP/pen edge and seeding push; ML is rich so the RL captures value.

🧾 Ticket (DK)

• Bet: PHI −1.5

• Units: 1.5u

• Play to: −115

✅ Pick #2 — 1.0u

Seattle Mariners — Moneyline (around −120 DK)
Opponent: Los Angeles Dodgers • Start: 8:40 PM CT
Why we like it: Home/urgency tilt plus bullpen leverage; price near pick’em fits our edge.

🧾 Ticket (DK)

• Bet: SEA ML

• Units: 1.0u

• Play to: −130

✅ Pick #3 — 1.0u

Houston Astros — Moneyline (around −165 DK)
Opponent: Los Angeles Angels • Start: 8:38 PM CT
Why we like it: Motivation + SP/pen advantage; ML over RL to limit variance.

🧾 Ticket (DK)

• Bet: HOU ML

• Units: 1.0u

• Play to: −170

📊 Today’s Card (CT)

• Phillies −1.5 — 1.5u — 5:05 PM vs Twins

• Mariners ML — 1.0u — 8:40 PM vs Dodgers

• Astros ML — 1.0u — 8:38 PM @ Angels

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If your DK screen differs, use the Play to lines above as guardrails.