📬 BetSignalAI — 🏈TNF & 🏀NBA

Author

Tab Martin
November 20, 2025

🔥 Top Pick — 1.0u

Under 43.5 (−112 DK) BUF@HOU
EV: +3% (10K MC hit rate ~54–55%)
Why we like it: Both teams project to a mid-tempo script with fewer explosives; pressure on both QBs nudges red-zone TD% toward FGs. Our sims cluster around 42–43.
Play to: U43.5 (≤ −115); at U43.0 (−110) trim to 0.75u.

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Total
• Play: Under 43.5 (−112)
• Units: 1.0u
• Time: 7:15 PM CT

✅ Pick 2 — 0.75u

Bills −5.5 (−115 DK)
EV: +2% (10K MC cover ~53%)
Why we like it: Buffalo’s pass-rush and early-down success create short fields; special-teams edge plus late-down defense gives separation in the 4th.
Play to: −6 (≤ −110); at −6.5, trim to 0.5u.

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Spread
• Play: Bills −5.5 (−115)
• Units: 0.75u
• Time: 7:15 PM CT

🏀🏀🏀🏀🏀🏀

🔥 Top Pick of the Day

PHI 76ers −2.5 (−108) — 1.0u
Game: PHI 76ers @ MIL Bucks
Tip: 7:00 PM CT
EV: +5%
Why we like it: Half-court efficiency + free-throw edge for PHI; Bucks’ defensive rebounding/turnover gaps show up in late-game sims.
Play to: −3 (≤ −110)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Spread
• Play: 76ers −2.5 (−108)
• Units: 1.0u
• Time: 7:00 PM CT

✅ Pick 2

Clippers @ Magic — Under 218.5 (−110) — 0.75u
Game: LA Clippers @ ORL Magic
Tip: 6:00 PM CT
EV: +4%
Why we like it: Pace downtick + strong paint defense profiles; both teams suppress FT rate in sims → possessions convert to fewer points.
Play to: U217.5 (≤ −110)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Total
• Play: Under 218.5 (−110)
• Units: 0.75u
• Time: 6:00 PM CT

✅ Pick 3

ATL Hawks @ SA Spurs — Over 231.5 (−108) — 0.75u
Game: ATL Hawks @ SA Spurs
Tip: 7:00 PM CT
EV: +3%
Why we like it: Pace/transition spikes + high 3PA rates on both sides; Spurs’ rim/DHOs leak points in our shot-quality model.
Play to: O232.5 (≤ −110)

🧾 Lock It In (DK)
• Market: Total
• Play: Over 231.5 (−108)
• Units: 0.75u
• Time: 7:00 PM CT

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