⭐ Top Pick of the Night

Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO (-105) — 1.5u
Game: Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos
Fight: 3/14
EV: Positive
10K MC: 55.4%

Why we like it:
This is the best overall play on the card. Vallejos brings the cleaner pace, sharper striking efficiency, and younger legs into a matchup where damage is the clearest separator. Emmett still has veteran power and can make any exchange dangerous, but Vallejos’ best path is not a slow decision grind — it is sustained pressure, cleaner offense, and a finish. The board supports that read, and instead of paying heavy juice on the moneyline, we get the better angle by attacking his most likely win condition.

Play to: -120 or better

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

• Market: Method of Victory
• Play: Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO (-105)
• Units: 1.5u
• Time: 3/14

Pick 2

Elijah Smith -3.5 (+100) — 1.0u
Game: Elijah Smith vs Su Young You
Fight: 3/14
EV: +5.8%
10K MC: 52.9%

Why we like it:
Smith has the stronger minute-winning profile here. He holds the edge in reach, output, and overall control style, and that fits the most likely script of a longer fight where he steadily builds separation. We like the spread more than forcing the exact decision path because it gives us a little more room while still lining up with a clear Smith scorecard win.

Play to: -110 or better

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

• Market: Spread
• Play: Elijah Smith -3.5 (+100)
• Units: 1.0u
• Time: 3/14

Pick 3

Jose Delgado by KO/TKO (-120) — 1.0u
Game: Andre Filli vs Jose Delgado
Fight: 3/14
EV: Near fair / best script on the board
10K MC: 52.1%

Why we like it:
Delgado has the sharper pace and stronger damage-based profile in this matchup. Filli has the veteran experience to extend fights if he survives the early storm, but the better path is still Delgado overwhelming him with offense. The moneyline is too expensive, so the better attack is the stoppage prop tied directly to Delgado’s strongest edge.

Play to: -135 or better

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

• Market: Method of Victory
• Play: Jose Delgado by KO/TKO (-120)
• Units: 1.0u
• Time: 3/14

Pick 4

Beatriz Mesquita by Submission (+100) — 1.0u
Game: Beatriz Mesquita vs Montserrat Rendon
Fight: 3/14
EV: Near fair / best script on the board
10K MC: 49.8%

Why we like it:
This is the clearest grappling edge on the card. Mesquita has the stronger takedown game, the stronger submission upside, and the cleaner control path from start to finish. The moneyline is too juiced to be worth the tax, so the sharpest way in is to back her best weapon. If this fight goes where it should, Mesquita’s grappling should take over.

Play to: -110 or better

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

• Market: Method of Victory
• Play: Beatriz Mesquita by Submission (+100)
• Units: 1.0u
• Time: 3/14

Pick 5

Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO (+120) — 1.0u
Game: Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick
Fight: 3/14
EV: Slight positive
10K MC: 46.3%

Why we like it:
Rahiki looks like the cleaner, more explosive striker in this matchup. He has the better offensive pace, the stronger damage profile, and the better current form of the two from a striking standpoint. Hardwick has experience, but Rahiki’s clearest path is not letting this drag out unnecessarily — it is landing cleaner, taking over exchanges, and finding the stoppage.

Play to: +105 or better

🧾 Lock It In (DK)

• Market: Method of Victory
• Play: Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO (+120)
• Units: 1.0u
• Time: 3/14

📊 Ranked by Likelihood to Cash

1. Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO (-105) — 55.4%

2. Elijah Smith -3.5 (+100) — 52.9%

3. Jose Delgado by KO/TKO (-120) — 52.1%

4. Beatriz Mesquita by Submission (+100) — 49.8%

5. Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO (+120) — 46.3%

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