🔥 BetSignalAI — ⚾ World Series Game 1

🧨 Top Pick of the Day — 1.5u

Under 7.5 (−111)
Why: Snell’s whiffs + October hooks on both sides → limited crooked innings.
Numbers: BE 52.6% • Model ≈55–56% → EV ≈ +4.5% to +6.5%
Play to: −118 (lighten at −120)
🧾 DK: Total • U 7.5 (−111) • 1.5u

✅ Pick 2 — 1.25u

Blake Snell 7+ strikeouts (+101)
Why: Our K distribution centers 7–8; this is the highest-probability rung.
Numbers: BE 49.8% • Model ≈54–56% → EV ≈ +8.5% to +12.6%
Play to: −110
🧾 DK: Alt Ks • Snell 7+ (+101) • 1.25u

✅ Pick 3 — 1.0u

Blake Snell 8+ strikeouts (+205)
Why: Plus-money ceiling that still sits in our core band.
Numbers: BE 32.8% • Model ≈38–41% → EV ≈ +16% to +25%
Play to: +160
🧾 DK: Alt Ks • Snell 8+ (+205) • 1.0u

✳️ Pick 4 — 0.5u (sprinkle)

Blake Snell 9+ strikeouts (+408)
Why: Long-tail outcome; small stake for upside.
Numbers: BE 19.7% • Model ≈23–26% → EV ≈ +17% to +32%
Play to: +330
🧾 DK: Alt Ks • Snell 9+ (+408) • 0.5u

Notes

• These four are intentionally correlated to a Snell-dominant, low-scoring script.

• If any line moves past the play-to number, pass to protect EV.

• Model: 10K sims with starters, bullpen leverage availability, park/temps, and playoff usage.