🧨 Top Pick of the Day — 1.5u

F5 Under 4.5 (−118 DK)
Why we love it: Two elite starters, managers empty the chessboard late—not early. Our model keeps the first-half median at ~3.7 runs.
Play to: −125 • EV: +4–6 pts

✅ Pick 2 — 1.25u

Dodgers −1.5 (+112 DK)
Why: Ohtani stamina edge + LAD late-inning trio healthier → multiple 2+ run cover paths.
Play to: +105 • EV: +5–7 pts

✅ Pick 3 — 1.0u

Full Game Under 8 (−115 DK)
Why: Cooler temps/headwind + both aces ≥6 IP in most sims; leverage arms shorten the 7th–9th.
Play to: −120 • EV: +3–4 pts

✅ Pick 4 — Ohtani K Ladder (DK)

Stacked as one pick; graded per leg. Game-7 leash bumps volume 2–3%.

• 5+ Ks (−103) — 1.0u • BE 50.7% • Model 53–55% → EV +3–9% • Play to −115

• 6+ Ks (+214) — 0.75u • BE 31.9% • Model 36–38% → EV +13–19% • Play to +185

• 7+ Ks (+465) — 0.5u sprinkle • BE 17.7% • Model 20–23% → EV +18–30% • Play to +400

Why the ladder: Jays carry enough whiff pockets versus high-velo/splitter to justify a plus-money stack; 5+ is the anchor, 6+/7+ capture ceiling.

🧾 Quick Ticket Recap (CT)

• Top Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (−118) — 1.5u — 6:00 PM

• Pick 2: Dodgers −1.5 (+112) — 1.25u — 6:00 PM

• Pick 3: Under 8 (−115) — 1.0u — 6:00 PM

• Pick 4: Ohtani 5+ (−103) 1.0u, 6+ (+214) 0.75u, 7+ (+465) 0.5u

House rules: If a line moves past the Play-to number, pass to protect EV. All prices DraftKings. Times Central.

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🔒 Top Pick of the Day — 1.25 Units

Tennessee −3 (−102) vs Oklahoma — Kick 6:30 PM CT
Why we love it: Vols carry the early-down success + finishing-drives edge at home, with a pressure advantage that trims OU’s explosive rate. Cheap −3 on the key number.
Play to: −3 (≤ −115); at −3.5 (−105/−110) trim to 1.0u.

✅ Play 2 — 1.25 Units

Virginia −6 (−108) at California — Kick 2:45 PM CT
Why we love it: UVA wins early downs and limits explosives; special-teams/field-position tilt plus a red-zone edge push this toward a one-score+ result.
Play to: −6.5 (−105/−110 = 1.0u); −7 (−105/−110 = 0.75u).

✅ Play 3 — 1.0 Unit

Ole Miss −12.5 (−112) vs South Carolina — Kick 6:00 PM CT
Why we love it: Rebels’ explosives + red-zone conversion outpace SC’s drive finishing; multiple separation scripts in the second half.
Play to: −13 (≤ −110) keep 1.0u; −13.5 = 0.75u.

📉 Total of the Night — 1.0 Unit

Purdue @ Michigan — UNDER 48.5 (−105) — Kick 6:00 PM CT
Why we love it: Michigan pace/ground control shrinks possessions; Purdue’s explosive profile is muted vs UM’s havoc/coverage.
Play to: Under 47.5 (≤ −110); 47.0 = 0.75u.

Quick Ticket (copy/paste)

• TENN −3 (−102) — 1.25u — play to −3 ≤ −115; −3.5 = 1.0u

• UVA −6 (−108) — 1.25u — to −6.5 = 1.0u; −7 = 0.75u

• OLE MISS −12.5 (−112) — 1.0u — to −13 ≤ −110; −13.5 = 0.75u

• PUR–MICH UNDER 48.5 (−105) — 1.0u — to 47.5 ≤ −110; 47.0 = 0.75u

Discipline: Singles are the grind. Parlays tracked separately. If your book is outside our play-to numbers, skip it—we don’t chase.

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