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🏈⚾CFB & MLB 8/30/25πŸ”₯

7 pick and build a parlay

Author

Tab Martin
August 30, 2025

πŸ”’ Top Pick of the Day

Washington βˆ’21 (βˆ’110) β€” 1.5 Units
Model (10K sims): Cover 58% β€’ Fair line βˆ’22.3 β€’ EV +10.7%
Why: Early-down efficiency + finishing-drives edge; defensive front creates short fields.
Play to: βˆ’22.5

πŸ“ˆ Play #2

Tennessee βˆ’13.5 (βˆ’112) β€” 1.0 Unit
Model (10K sims): Cover 57% β€’ Fair line βˆ’14.9 β€’ EV +7.9%
Why: Tempo + athletes in space; 3rd-down/red-zone edges β†’ two-score script.
Play to: βˆ’14.5

πŸ“ˆ Play #3

Iowa State βˆ’14.5 (βˆ’110) β€” 1.0 Unit
Model (10K sims): Cover 56% β€’ Fair line βˆ’16.0 β€’ EV +6.9%
Why: Trench mismatch, special-teams tilt, sustained field-position advantage.
Play to: βˆ’16.5

πŸ“ˆ Play #4

HawaiΚ»i–Arizona Over 53.5 (βˆ’112) β€” 1.0 Unit
Model (10K sims): Over 57% β€’ Fair total 55.8 β€’ EV +7.9%
Why: Pace + explosives on both sides; multiple paths to points into Q4.
Play to: 53.5 (at 54, trim to 0.5u)

Notes

  • EV shown is per unit staked at listed juice (e.g., βˆ’110 yields +0.909u on a win).

  • Probabilities reflect our current inputs and 10K-run Monte Carlo as of today (CT).

πŸ”₯ Top Pick of the Day

New York Yankees -1.5 (βˆ’131) @ White Sox β€” 6:10 PM CT
Why we love it: Clear lineup/firepower edge and run-prevention advantage translate well to margin. We avoid ML juice and still project a strong hit rate.
Lock It In (DK): Yankees βˆ’1.5 (βˆ’131)
BetSignalAI 10K MC Win%: 61.9%

βœ… Pick 2

Philadelphia Phillies β€” Moneyline (βˆ’150) vs Braves β€” 5:05 PM CT
Why we love it: Home form + bullpen leverage with the better recent run creation. We’re prioritizing the straight W here.
Lock It In (DK): Phillies ML (βˆ’150)
BetSignalAI 10K MC Win%: 64.5%

πŸ’Ž Pick 3 β€” Batter Prop

Bo Bichette (Blue Jays) β€” 2+ Total Bases (βˆ’105) vs Brewers β€” 2:07 PM CT
Why we love it: Contact + gap power at home gives multiple paths (two knocks or one XBH) to clear 2+.
Lock It In (DK): Bichette 2+ TB (βˆ’105)
BetSignalAI 10K MC Win%: 54.0%

πŸ“Š Projection Check (Implied vs. Sim)

Play

DK Odds

Breakeven %

MC Win %

Edge

Yankees βˆ’1.5 @ CHW

βˆ’131

56.7%

61.9%

+5.2%

Phillies ML vs ATL

βˆ’150

60.0%

64.5%

+4.5%

Bichette 2+ TB vs MIL

βˆ’105

51.2%

54.0%

+2.8%

(Breakeven % = odds implied probability.)

🎟️ Quick Tickets (DK) β€” CT

  • Yankees βˆ’1.5 (βˆ’131) β€” 6:10 PM

  • Phillies ML (βˆ’150) β€” 5:05 PM

  • Bichette 2+ TB (βˆ’105) β€” 2:07 PM

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