Top Bet Cashed 6 of last 7

Author

Tab Martin
July 16, 2025

🔥 BetSignal AI — WNBA Edge Report (Wednesday, July 16) 🔥

Rank

Play

Match-up & Start (CT)

DraftKings Line*

AI Projection

Confidence

1 – Top Bet of the Day

UNDER 170 PTS

Aces @ Wings • 7 : 00 PM

–108

164 PTS

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

2

Napheesa Collier OVER 21.0 PTS

Mercury @ Lynx • 12 : 00 PM

–115

24 PTS

⭐⭐⭐⭐

3

Liberty –9.5 (Spread)

Fever @ Liberty • 6 : 30 PM

–110

NYL by 14

⭐⭐⭐⭐

* Lines captured on DraftKings, 7 AM CT.

🧠 Why We Love These Plays

1️⃣ Under 170 — Aces @ Wings (Top Bet of the Day)

  • Measured pace: Teams combine for ≈ 77.8 possessions (league avg ≈ 79); 170 implies an 81-possession game.

  • Recent scoring chill: Neither club has topped 85 in 6 of their last 8.

  • Glass control: Las Vegas sits top-5 in defensive-rebound %, trimming Dallas’ second-chance chances.

  • 10 K Monte Carlo: Median 164.2 → 64 % under hit rate, still a 6-point cushion even after the overnight tick from 170.5 → 170.

2️⃣ Napheesa Collier Over 21.0 PTS — Mercury @ Lynx

  • Scoring queen: League-leading 23.9 PPG with 31 % usage.

  • Soft interior looks: Phoenix allows the 4th-highest FG% inside 10 feet.

  • History vs PHX: 24, 26 & 27 points in three meetings this season.

  • 10 K Monte Carlo: Median 24.7 PTS → 65 % probability she clears 21.

3️⃣ Liberty –9.5 — Fever @ Liberty

  • Elite two-way machine: NYL rank 2nd in both OffRtg (108.7) and DefRtg (99.9).

  • Clark doubt: Caitlin Clark aggravated a groin strain Tuesday and is expected out tonight, dropping IND’s offensive rating nearly six points in on/off splits.

  • Home dominance: Liberty win margin at Barclays: +11.2 PPG.

  • 10 K Monte Carlo: Sim median Liberty by 14.1 → 63 % cover likelihood.

⚡ Lock these in before the numbers slide! ⚡